With only two weekends remaining in the 2025 AIHL regular season, we take a look at how the season will finish for each team, and how they can make Finals, have a day off on the Friday at Finals, or secure the best tee time once the weather gets better. This is the 2025 Run Home.
Adelaide Adrenaline’s Run Home
Games to go:
- Sat 16 Aug – Thunder in Adelaide
- Sun 17 Aug – Thunder in Adelaide
- Sat 23 Aug – Ice in Melb
- Sun 24 Aug – Ice in Melb
To make Top 2 (and have Friday at Finals off): Hope the AIHL bans at least four other teams from Finals.
To make Finals: Beat two of the best two teams in the league (twice each) AND have the Mustangs and Lightning pick up no more than 3 and 4 points. There is very little wriggle room for the Adrenaline here – they can afford to lose once, but only if the Mustangs and Lightning lose all their games.
Brisbane Lightning’s Run Home
Games to go:
- Sat 16 Aug – Rhinos in Erina
- Sun 17 Aug – Rhinos in Erina
- Sat 23 Aug – Northstars in Brisbane
- Sun 24 Aug – Northstars in Brisbane
To make Top 2 (and have Friday at Finals off): From here, the Lightning can’t catch either the Ice or the Brave, so they’ll have to do it the hard way if they make Finals.
To make Finals: If they win in regulation on Saturday against the Rhinos, and Adrenaline lose against the Thunder in regulation – they are in. Effectively they need 3 points more than Adelaide over the weekend to confirm their spot – however that comes.
Canberra Brave’s Run Home
Games to go:
- Sat 16 Aug – Mustangs in Melb
- Sun 17 Aug – Ice in Melb
- Sun 24 Aug – Rhinos in Erina
To make Top 2 (and have Friday at Finals off): One more win puts them out of reach of Newcastle. While two more might mean a tiebreaker with Perth (if the Thunder take all 12 remaining points on offer, and the three-point deduction stands). The first tiebreaker is the number of regulation and overtime (but not shootout) wins. Then it comes down to the head-to-head record between the teams. On the first tiebreaker, the Brave have the inside running, as they currently have 16 wins to 14, and Perth would win that second tiebreaker* – so the Brave need at least seven points to be certain of second spot. If Perth lose a gain against either Adelaide (this weekend) or the Mustangs (next weekend), it gets a bit easier though.
To make Finals: With the win on Saturday night against the Rhinos, the Brave have secured a spot at Finals, keeping their streak of always playing Finals every year since their inception alive.
*Thanks to those who pointed out the error in the first version here!
Central Coast Rhinos’ Run Home
Games to go:
- Sat 16 Aug – Lightning in Erina
- Sun 17 Aug – Lightning in Erina
- Sun 24 Aug – Brave in Erina
To make Top 2 (and have Friday at Finals off): Find Doc Brown, a Delorean, a more contemporary reference for me to make here, and start the season again.
To make Finals: As above. The Rhinos struggled from the jump this year, but injuries to key players through the middle of the year really hurt them.
Melbourne Ice’s Run Home
Games to go:
- Sun 17 Aug – Brave in Melb
- Sat 23 Aug – Adrenaline in Melb
- Sat 24 Aug – Adrenaline in Melb
To make Top 2 (and have Friday at Finals off): Kick back, relax, and don’t make an administrative error or 12 and lose 15-20 competition points.
To make Finals: As the H. Newman Reid Trophy winners, the Ice were the first team to qualify for Finals, and have the Friday off. They can now sit back and prepare for a two-game push at the Goodall Cup.
Melbourne Mustangs’ Run Home
Games to go:
- Sat 16 Aug – Brave in Melb
- Sat 23 Aug – Thunder in Perth
- Sun 24 Aug – Thunder in Perth
To make Top 2 (and have Friday at Finals off): From here, the Mustangs can’t catch the top two, but can possibly sneak last-change advantage for the Friday game if things go their way.
To make Finals: It’s a tough run home for the men in orange, with the Brave and a trip to Perth. If they get one more point than Adelaide do this weekend, they will be home. If they beat the Brave, that will do it. Or, if Adelaide lose two games, that will do it as well.
Newcastle Northstars’ Run Home
Games to go:
- Sat 23 Aug – Lightning in Brisbane
- Sun 24 Aug – Lightning in Brisbane
To make Top 2 (and have Friday at Finals off): The only thing Newcastle can do to keep their hopes of 2nd spot alive is to win both games on the last weekend. It may be too late by then though – if the Brave pick up a win this weekend, that door will be closed. If the Brave get less than two points this weekend, and Perth pick up six, the Northstars will be relying on the Mustangs to beat Perth on that final weekend.
To make Finals: A win on Saturday night against the Adrenaline was enough for Newcastle to punch their ticket to Finals weekend in Melbourne – now it comes down to whether they can grab 2nd spot or not.
Perth Thunder’s Run Home
Games to go:
- Sat 16 Aug – Adrenaline in Adelaide
- Sun 17 Aug – Adrenaline in Adelaide
- Sat 23 Aug – Mustangs in Perth
- Sun 24 Aug – Mustangs in Perth
To make Top 2 (and have Friday at Finals off): Having a game in hand on the competition (the Brave and Northstars) is an advantage for Perth – so the equation is simple for them. Win all four games, and assuming the three-point deduction is applied, they need the Brave to drop a game to take second spot.
To make Finals: Having clinched a spot now, thanks to Adelaide losing to Newcastle on Saturday, the focus for Perth switches to fighting for 2nd spot – and more significantly, breaking their duck in Melbourne-hosted Finals series.
If you want to see how different scenarios play out – take a look at the AIHL Ladder Predictor.
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