2023 in review

• 2023 record – 4^th in Hellyer Conference, 7^th overall (10W – 0OTW – 0OTL – 16L)

2023 was a bit of a wild ride for the Ice – at times they looked to be an unstoppable force as far as offense was concerned. However on the other side of the puck, their struggles meant they were never really a contender, despite that high scoring. The up-front firepower of prized local recruit Chris Schutz, with Mac Caruana and Patrick Klöpper showed the Ice at their best, but the fact that each of their goaltenders faced over 40 shots per game tells a story.

Figure 1: Melbourne Ice key stats in 2023 AIHL Season

The Ice are still largely rebuilding after the 2017 Goodall Cup, which acted as a button of sorts on the Ice’s threepeat-era core and have a promising stable of young players. However, these young players have some very big shoes to fill – and this will take some time.

Table 1: Melbourne Ice top 5 scorers in 2023

Table 2: Melbourne Ice 2023 goalie stats

History

The last decade for the Ice is one of two halves – up to the Cup win in 2017, they were perennial contenders, making Finals weekend in every season and playing in three Grand Finals. However, starting in 2018, they haven’t made Finals in four seasons and have struggled at times.

This has been most stark in the defensive end of the ice. Between 2013 and 2017, the Ice conceded only 2.929 goals per game, but from 2018 that jumps to 5.245 – on the back of conceding 10 more shots per game.

That decline has coincided with key players leaving at different stages – with Matt Armstrong, Tommy Powell, Jason Baclig, Joey Hughes and Todd Graham proving very hard to replace – as you would expect! All of these five, along with long-term captain Lliam Webster, formed the core of the champion Melbourne Ice teams, and it is only reasonable to expect times to be a little harder without them.

Over the past two seasons, the Ice’s record against opponents has few surprises – they have taken all the points on offer against Adelaide and the Central Coast, most of the points (62.5%) against the Ice Dogs and lesser records against the other teams. The worst amongst these for the Ice is against the Brave, where they have no points in six games and the down-corridor Mustangs, with just one overtime win in eight games. If anyone could find the Yarra Cup anymore, it wouldn’t be the Ice.

The tables below show the top scorers for the Ice, goalie performances for the 2023 goalies, as well as Jaden Pine-Murphy – who has played more in net than anyone else for the Ice in the past decade (and owns an AIHL goal), and the top scorers against the Ice.

Table 3: Melbourne Ice top 10 scorers, 2013 to 2023

Table 4: Melbourne Ice key goalie stats, 2013 to 2023

*Per game calculations based on 60 minutes, not 50.

Table 5: Top 10 scorers against Melbourne Ice, 2013 to 2023

New players/imports

• Joakim Erdugan is the first import announced by the Ice in 2024, making the move south from the Central Coast Rhinos in 2023. Erdugan was a rare bright spot for the Rhinos in 2023, putting up 49 points in 25 games – a point on over 65% of Rhinos goals. With a bit more support around him than last year, he is projected to score between 55 and 65 points in 2024.
• Jeff Solow joins the Ice after a season in the NZIHL in 2023, and the D man will help to shore up the Ice defensively. With experience in the ECHL and SPHL since leaving college, he will be important for the Ice to keep pressure off their net, but isn’t expected to put up large numbers of points – that will be taken care of at the other end of the ice. We project him to score between 25 and 30 points this year.

Player to watch

One of the bright young prospects at the Ice is Justin Dixon. The 20 year old, big-bodied forward played 15 games in his first AIHL campaign in 2023, picking up 5 points and looms as an exciting prospect for the club. He also has shown leadership qualities, being named captain of the National Junior team two years in a row at the under-20 World Championships.

Keys for 2024

For the Ice to improve on their 2023 showing, it is all in their own end. They need to find a way to address their defensive issues, to give the firepower up front something to work with.

The first port of call on this is likely adding an import defenseman, something addressed by the signing of Jeff Solow (or two, depending on the makeup of the import slots). A strong import D can take a little of the pressure off the players currently manning the blue line, and protect the goalies a bit more. If Chris Schutz returns, that essentially gives the Ice an additional import slot, and if they are unable to find a D man they may run into the same trouble as 2023.

The next piece of the puzzle is seeing which of the younger brigade will step into the long shadows left by the departed core of players. Caruana has already taken that step and is leading from the front, but strong shows from players like Dixon, Laver and Cincotta will help take the pressure off that top-end.