Brisbane Lightning mid-season report card – Current rating: Happy to be in the Rurak Conference.

A couple of weeks ago, my daughter and I contracted RSV from day care. We felt horrendous. But while we were sick, and she was home, we received an email from the day care centre warning parents about a chicken pox outbreak. So, as terrible as I felt, there was a sense of relief that being sick with RSV protected us from chicken pox in this instance.

Without wanting to appear too blasé, the Brisbane Lightning have struggled at points this season, highlighted by a six-game losing streak that extended through part of April and most of May.

The Lightning are on 17 points, which would put them fourth in the Hellyer Conference, 15 points outside of a playoff spot. However, 17 points in the Rurak Conference places the Lightning in second spot, seven points ahead of the Central Coast Rhinos in fourth.

So, while having a points percentage of .378 is not ideal, like contracting RSV, being in the Hellyer Conference with chicken pox would be worse.

Turning Point?

Last month, the Brisbane Lightning took on the Melbourne Mustangs at O’Brien Icehouse in a huge clash for both organisations. The Lightning were, as mentioned, entrenched in a six-game losing streak. Meanwhile, the Mustangs were desperate to keep pace with the Perth Thunder in a race for the final playoff spot.

Although the Melbourne Mustangs led the shot-count, and hit the post multiple times, it was the Lightning that showed resolve and scored the 2-1 game-winner with just 12 seconds left in regulation.

With a rematch at Boondall last weekend, and the Mustangs’ season well and truly on the ropes, the Lightning landed a knockout blow on the defending Goodall Cup champions with a 4-1 victory. Yes, the Mustangs were undermanned for the trip to the sunshine state, but the Lightning maintained focus on what was within their control and got the job done.

Room for Improvement

The Lightning are currently eighth in the league for goals scored per game, and eight in the league in goals allowed per game. Only the Central Coast Rhinos have a worse goal differential than the Lightning.

Being in the bottom three in scoring is survivable if you are in the top three in goals conceded, and vice versa. At the moment the Lightning seem trapped in the headlights of statistical ennui.

Scoring has been an issue at times for the Lightning. Only three players on the roster are averaging more than a point per game – Batu Gendunov (1.3), Chance Adrian (1.3), and Mitchell Dyck (1.0). For context, the Perth Thunder have nine players averaging at least a point per game offensively.

However, the Lightning have done a much better job defensively in the last two games. They don’t need to be in the top-three in league scoring and defence to make finals. Heck, finishing sixth would probably be just fine. But they do need to be wary of the Rhinos and Adelaide Adrenaline, and get results in games against those teams to make finals in their sophomore season.

Current standings

The Lightning currently sit second in the Rurak, and sixth in the AIHL, However, the Adelaide Adrenaline, who currently sit last in the league and the conference, have four games in hand. So, theoretically, should the Adrenaline win all four games in hand, they would overtake the Lightning.

This illustrates the tenuous nature of the playoff race. Although the Hellyer Conference takes the spotlight with the three top teams in the competition residing therein, the playoff race is no less intriguing in the Rurak Conference.

In fact, with those top three teams in the Hellyer Conference all but assured a playoff spot, the Rurak Conference offers genuine hope for all teams within the group.

Key Performers so far

Mitchell Dyck

Mitchell Dyck has been an omni-present force for the Lightning, contributing at both ends of the ice from the blueline. With 15 points (5 goals, 10 assists) in 15 games played, Dyck leads the team in points.

The smooth-skating defenceman has scored his goals at vital times for the Lightning, and is tied with Arum Rapchuk with two game-winning goals (one against the Rhinos in overtime, one against the Thunder).

Dyck’s play at both ends of the ice has been vital for the Lightning, and will continue to be throughout the rest of the season.

Arum Rapchuk

Arum Rapchuk leads locals for scoring with 14 points (7 goals, 7 assists) in 15 games played. In the last four games, Rapchuk has tallied seven points.

The young forward has scored at vital moments, including two game winning goals (one against the Brave, one against the Mustangs), and a game-tying goal against the Rhinos. If Rapchuk can continue to produce at around a point-per-game clip, the Lightning should be in good shape.

Curtis Meger

Import goaltender Curtis Meger has performed well in the last two games, and was a key part of the Lightning snuffing out a six-game losing streak. In the past two games Meger has posted two wins, a 1.00 GAA, and .964 save percentage. If the Lighting can reduce rush opportunities and clear out the blue paint, Meger has proven he can match it with the best.

The Lightning have won six games this season, all of them with Meger in net. Meger will be vital in the second half of the season as the team seeks to clinch another finals berth.

Best win so far

While it’s tempting to go with the 2-1 victory against the Mustangs, I’ve repeated that game through this article more times than Sandstorm by Darude has been played at a Millenial-themed dance party. Instead, I’m going with the season-opening 8-6 win against the Perth Thunder.

Exactly two different teams have defeated the Perth Thunder – the Melbourne Ice (twice), and the Brisbane Lightning. The Thunder are a genuine Goodall Cup contender. If the two teams meet at finals, the Lightning will have that favourable result in their back pocket to draw confidence from.

The Lightning overturned a 4-2 deficit in the barnburner to take out the win against the Western Australians. However, there is a sense that the best win for the Lightning is still to come.

Expectations for remainder of the season

While the Lightning are currently in second place in the Rurak Conference, it would be a surprise if that’s where the team finished at the end of the regular season. No disrespect is intended towards the Lightning, however it is hard to see them either overtaking the Newcastle Northstars for top spot, or fending off the improved Canberra Brave.

This weekend, they play host to the bottom team in the Hellyer Conference, the Sydney Ice Dogs. Both teams will be desperate for a win, and it will be a good test for Brisbane to continue to fend off the teams below them in the Rurak Conference.

The Lightning play their main challengers for the third and final playoff spot, Central Coast Rhinos and Adelaide Adrenaline, six times. Four of those games are away games, travelling twice in both Adelaide and Erina. The Lightning host the Adrenaline in the penultimate round of the season at Boondall for a double header that could decide each team’s playoff fate.

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