Two teams have already qualified for the Australian Ice Hockey League (AIHL) Finals at O’Brien Icehouse from August 23-25, 2024. The Sydney Bears and Newcastle Northstars will be joined by four other teams.

Earlier today, Tristan Metcalfe published an interactive AIHL standings predictor. Feel free to take a look, input your predictions, and tag us on socials with your prognostications.

In the meantime, here are Hockey Hype Australia’s clinching scenarios for all eight clubs.

Rurak Conference

Adelaide Adrenaline

The Adelaide Adrenaline is one of five teams that hold its AIHL Finals destiny in its own hands. It is the only club not currently in a playoff position that does.

Adelaide will play the third-placed Brisbane Lightning four times in seven games. With 12 points on offer it allows the Adrenaline to gain ground and erase the four point deficit.

Sandwiched in between the double servings of Lightning games the Adrenaline will host the Sydney Ice Dogs. If Adelaide wins all of its next five games in regulation, the team will be on 36 points. The maximum points the Lightning could then accrue is 34 points.

While the Rhinos could potentially collect a maximum 39 points, 36 should be enough for the Adrenaline to qualify considering the Rhinos difficult schedule.

If the Adrenaline haven’t clinched a playoff spot before the final weekend of the regular season, the team will need to take points away from the Canberra Brave in the capital. Not an ideal proposition.

Outlook analogy: Ordering ribs while wearing a suede jacket. Sure, it can be done, but the margins for error are small.

Brisbane Lightning

As mentioned in the previous section, the Brisbane Lightning play its closest rival in the standings four times in the next six games. The other two games are against teams also below the Lightning in the standings – the Central Coast Rhinos, and Sydney Ice Dogs.

For its final game of the regular season, the Lightning travel to Perth to take on the Thunder. Ideally, the team will look to have wrapped up a playoff spot by then.

So how can the Lightning clinch an AIHL Finals berth? If the Lightning defeat the Adrenaline three times in regulation, and defeat the Rhinos, that will put the team on 37 points.

The maximum the Adrenaline can collect in that scenario would be 33 points, and 36 points for the Rhinos. Its an achievable task, and puts the Lightning in the drivers’ seat.

Outlook analogy: You’ve been driving with kids in the car for five hours, and you’re 30 minutes away from your destination. The end is in sight but your right eye is beginning to twitch.

Canberra Brave

Sitting in second place, with a 14 point lead over the fourth placed Adelaide Adrenaline, it’s just a matter of time for the Brave to qualify for Finals. It could happen as soon as this weekend.

To qualify this weekend, the Brave require a regulation win against the Rhinos. That will put the Brave on 38 points, and the Rhinos will only be able to accrue 36 points. One pursuer down.

Next, the Brave will be cheering for the Lightning to sweep the Adrenaline this weekend, with at least one win coming in regulation. Even if one victory is in overtime, the maximum points Adelaide can subsequently accrue will be 37.

If the Brave don’t qualify this weekend, the team will face the league leading Sydney Bears away before hosting the Rhinos (once) and Adrenaline (twice) in August. Barring a Maple Leafs level meltdown, the Brave will be at AIHL Finals.

Outlook analogy: You’ve ordered at a restaurant directly after a group of 20 young professionals who have each made meal adjustment requests. Your food is coming, there’s no rush, enjoy your aperitif.

Central Coast Rhinos

The Rhinos are the first of three teams that do not control its own fate, and must rely on the kindness of friends/strangers. Or, more accurately, actively cheer for the blunders of conference opponents.

Let’s start our journey by imagining a rosy-coloured glasses scenario of points that Adelaide and Brisbane could accrue and apply a working backwards heuristic to see how much wriggle room there is for the Rhinos.

In an ideal world, the Rhinos would hope that the Adelaide Adrenaline defeat the Brisbane Lightning in overtime or a shootout all four times. That leaves both teams with 29 points with three games left.

The Sydney Ice Dogs play the Adrenaline and Lightning across the weekend of July 27 and 28. The Rhinos will be doing everything possible to manifest Ice Dogs wins.

If that happens, the Rhinos will hope for the not unlikely scenario that the Lightning will lose to the Thunder in Perth, and the Adrenaline will lose both games in Canberra. Assuming the Rhinos defeat the Lightning on July 27, both the Adrenaline and Lightning would have 29 points.

So, the Rhinos simply need a path to 30 points. The win against the Lightning on July 27 gives them 21, nine points left to find. Let’s pencil in a win against the Ice Dogs, and two wins against the Northstars. And that’s 30 points.

If results don’t go the way of the Rhinos, the team will need wins against the Mustangs and Brave (twice) depending on how many points Brisbane/Adelaide accrue.

Outlook analogy: You know the scene in the original Star Wars movie where Luke Skywalker is flying down the alley and trying to shoot the ray shielded particle exhaust vent? The Rhinos are one of the uncredited actors flying one of the X Wings in his convoy. Can they survive? Mathematically, yes, of course. But they need a lot of help from the rest of the convoy.

Hellyer Conference

Melbourne Ice

After receiving a three-point deduction from the AIHL prior to last weekend, the Ice took a step back to 50 points. Without that three-point penalty the Ice would already be qualified.

Similar to the Canberra Brave, it seems just a matter of time until the Ice qualify, and they could do so as soon as Friday. Any win against the Mustangs in Friday’s derby, or any overtime or shootout loss will clinch an AIHL Finals spot.

Failing that scenario, there are two more possibilities to clinch this weekend. If the Mustangs do not get maximum points against the Newcastle Northstars on Saturday, the Ice will clinch.

And if that doesn’t come to fruition, the Melbourne Ice will clinch by securing at least a point against the Northstars on Sunday at O’Brien Icehouse.

Outlook analogy: An Owen Wilson movie is playing in the background. You and your friends are waiting for him to say ‘wow’ so you can drink your beverage swiftly. You’ve had to sit through ten minutes of the movie, but the wait will be over soon. Relax, loosen the tin foil hat, and put your feet up.

Melbourne Mustangs

The Mustangs trail the Thunder by 11 points, and the Thunder have a game in hand. However, the Thunder have a brutal run home to Finals. What will it take for the Mustangs to squeak into third?

The Mustangs play the Thunder one final time in the AIHL regular season, July 28 at O’Brien Icehouse. That game is a must-win game for the defending Goodall Cup champions.

Assuming that happens, the deficit is eight points. Let’s make it nine points to eliminate the tie-breaker which is currently in favour of the Thunder.

The five remaining games for the Mustangs are all winnable games. Its opponents include the Melbourne Ice, Newcastle Northstars (twice), Sydney Ice Dogs, and Central Coast Rhinos.

The horses have equal or winning records against each of those teams with the exception of the Ice Dogs. Let’s pencil in four regulation wins for the Mustangs. Adding those 12 points to the three against the Thunder, that puts the Mustangs on 47 points.

Now let’s move to the West Australians and imagine scenarios that involve getting no more than three points from the six remaining non-Mustangs games.

The Thunder play the Ice Dogs this Saturday at Macquarie. With an 8-2 Thunder victory at the last meeting in the venue, let’s be pragmatically charitable and give the Thunder three points.

That would mean the Thunder need to lose out the rest of the season. The team plays opponents above in the standings four times – Sydney Bears thrice, Melbourne Ice once. That’s four losses.

The Mustangs game is another loss. Lastly, the Mustangs will be cheering for the Brisbane Lightning to travel to Perth and take the spoils in the Thunder’s final AIHL regular season game.

Outlook analogy: You’re part of a group assignment, where your group members all have issues with the microphone and cameras, so you spend the meetup sessions talking into a void, hoping that everyone else is paying attention and looking after their respective sections. It could be spectacular. Or it could be a tire fire. There is no in-between.

Perth Thunder

With a game in hand and an 11 point lead over the fourth-placed Mustangs, the Thunder are sitting pretty. However, the Thunder have arguably the toughest run home of any team in the league.

With three games against the league-leading Sydney Bears, a game against the second-placed Melbourne Ice, and games against the Mustangs and Lightning who have had success against the Thunder already this season, the road to the AIHL Finals is tough.

The Thunder could remove one Finals challenger below with a win against the Ice Dogs on Saturday, which would eliminate the Ice Dogs mathematically. If the Thunder do triumph on Saturday, a win against the Mustangs at O’Brien Icehouse on July 28 will seal an AIHL Finals spot.

Failing that, the Thunder will require two wins from the aforementioned opponents to guarantee a spot. The odds are certainly in the Thunder’s favour, but it’s far from a lock.

Outlook analogy: Are you familiar with the scenario in Galaxy Quest, where the self-destruct sequence is initiated and Tim Allen and Sigourney Weaver need to go through a ridiculous Indiana Jones-esque obstacle course to deactivate the system? This has similar vibes. You know the protagonists will likely succeed, but it’s programmed to go down to the last second for maximum suspense.

Sydney Ice Dogs

With the Thunder needing just a single point to eliminate the Ice Dogs, there is zero margin for error. This makes it a simple scenario in the context of what the Ice Dogs need to do. The team needs to win out. In regulation. All seven games.

That means wins over the Perth Thunder, Adelaide Adrenaline, Brisbane Lightning, Melbourne Mustangs, Melbourne Ice (twice), and Central Coast Rhinos.

Additionally, the Ice Dogs need the Thunder to lose all seven remaining games, six of which are outside the Ice Dogs’ control. But, like a knife set salesperson on late night shopping television, ‘wait, there’s more!’.

The Ice Dogs need the Mustangs to win no more than three games. Since the Ice Dogs need the Mustangs to defeat the Thunder, that leaves two games. Adding in the Ice Dogs game against the Mustangs, it means the Ice Dogs need help from multiple teams.

The Ice Dogs have played good hockey lately, but a slow start to the season is catching up. It is going to take multiple miracles to see them playing at AIHL Finals in August.

Outlook analogy: The Ice Dogs are Stephen Bradbury at the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympic Games, hoping that everyone in front suffers a last minute, epic collapse. Or, perhaps, hoping the point deductions issued by the league for teams above in the Hellyer Conference standings continue so that 23 points is enough to qualify for Finals.