2024 started on a hot streak for the Northstars, and they rode that wave through to the top position in the Rurak Conference, earning a vital day off on Friday that will set them up well in their quest for a seventh Goodall Cup.

2024 Record

Overall record (13W – 3OTW – 7OTL – 7L) (0.578)

• Record against finals-bound teams (6W – 1OTW – 3OTL – 6L)

Story of the season: Fast start, bit of a mid-season stumble with injuries, coming back to form at the right time?

Figure 1: Newcastle Northstars Percentage – overall, and against Finals-bound teams.

The Northstars record against finalists switches from being just positive across the league overall (taking 57.8% of points), to being just negative (taking 47.9% of points). This swing is, however, the second-largest drop-off in percentage of the six finalists (behind the Brave’s massive difference). They are no strangers to nailbiters – with 10 of their 30 games going to OT. Over the past 10 games, the percentage rises to 60.0% as well.

Figure 2: Newcastle Northstars goal scoring – versus league average, overall and against finalists.

Firstly, the symmetry in Figure 2 is beautiful! Newcastle score 4.1 goals per game, and allow 3.6 across the league, and against finalists those numbers are reversed. It does perhaps suggest a challenge this weekend – but that will be true of all six teams. Something the Northstars can hang their hat on though, is the strength of their powerplay – scoring on one-third of the opportunities.

Figure 3: Newcastle Northstars special teams performance.

Strengths

Special teams – Newcastle have the second-strongest special teams performance in the AIHL, behind the Bears. Their powerplay is especially strong (28.6% ranked 2^nd in the AIHL), while the penalty kill seeing off 80.0% (ranked 4^th) is also impressive.

Defence – The one category that Newcastle rank top of the AIHL in is shots conceded – allowing only 30.4 per game. This is a testament to how strong their defence has been, as while both Inoue and Smart have had some great games in net, overall the Northstars have a relatively low save percentage (3^rd lowest in the AIHL).

Import scoring – With Francis Drolet leading the way with his highest points total in an AIHL season, the Northstar imports are collectively going at 1.6 PPG (3^rd highest in the league). Aiden Wagner also helped this with his star early-season turn – scoring 26 points in only 8 games.

Weaknesses

Local scoring – In some ways the other side of the import scoring above, Newcastle have the lowest share of local scoring of any finals team (Imports with 56.4% of points, locals with 43.6%), with only Adelaide higher across the AIHL.

Goaltending – As mentioned above, across the whole season, the Northstars’ save percentage has been at the lower end of the league with 0.881, in a season that had overall very strong goaltending. However, Inoue has been strong lately though, with the second-best record in the last 10 games of any finals-bound tendy with a save percentage of 0.926.

When they win

Special teams and staying out of the box are the keys for Newcastle. The powerplay working is a big factor – improving from 22.2% in losses to 34.3% in wins. Important for the Northstars winning (and most teams) is staying out of the box – they have 6.1 PIMs less per game they win versus games they lose.

Player to watch

Wehebe Darge. Despite his mid-season knee injury, Darge has still put up 32 points in 15 games and has hit his straps since coming back into the lineup. He will be hungry to add a Cup with Newcastle to his three others.  

Under the radar: This might not quite count, but if Riley Klugerman is fit to play this weekend, he will make a very handy addition to the Northstars roster. Another player to keep an eye on is Japanese netminder, Mitsuaki Inoue, who is quietly building a strong back end of the season.    

Weird stat

The Northstars have the biggest drop-off in goal difference per game when it comes to the second day of a double-header. Across the whole season, they average +0.533 goals per game over their opponents, but on the second day of a double-header, this falls to -0.455 per game. This is mostly because they score less – their goals for per game dropping by 0.861 goals.

Top 10 scorers

Goalies

Projected lineup