Tale of the Tape – Ice @ Lightning


This weekend on tale of the tape, we have a top-of-the-table double header in Brisbane, with the second-placed Lightning playing host to the ladder-leading Melbourne Ice. With the Ice having engaged the SES in search-and-rescue missions to find all the fans who had disappeared between 2018 and 2023, they are flying through the first half of the season, but what does the tale of the tape say about these two teams?

Overall in 2025

So far this year

The teams have met once so far this year, with the Lightning prevailing 2-1 in Melbourne on the back of a 58-save performance from Jake Doornbos and an OT winner from Big Batu Gendunov. That was all the way back in the glorified NAB Cup period before Easter though, with some lineup changes since.

Overall though, the Ice have arguably been even more dominant than the standings show. Currently they lead the league in the following categories:

  • Goals scored per game
  • Goals conceded per game
  • Shots on goal per game
  • Shot differential per game
  • Shooting percentage
  • Save percentage
  • Powerplay percentage
  • Penalty Kill percentage

Stopping this team will take some doing, and luckily the Lightning have arguably the league’s most dangerous three-headed monster since King Ghidorah to tackle it.

Jules Sturny, Tanner Hopps and Carson Miller have combined on the Lightning top line for 83 points so far this season – a full 51.2% of points for Brisbane (by some margin, the highest share in the league), and that line holds all the keys to the games this weekend. So can this up-front firepower combat the depth of the Ice?

Longer history

Since the Lightning joined the league in 2023, the teams have met 6 times, splitting the chocolates 3 times each (though, one Brisbane win was in OT – earlier this season). Across those 6 games, the Ice have outscored the Lightning 28 to 25, but at the same time have outshot them by 12 shots per game.

Powerplays have generally been happy hunting grounds for both teams. The Ice going at an impressive 28.0%, while the Lightning are even better – 31.6%.

Period by period

Last week we talked about how the Ice have built through games, getting stronger as they go. The Lightning have shown a similar profile – though just not as overall dominant as the men in red, white and blue (no, the other team in those colours. No, the other, other team in those colours).

Likely lineups

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