Tale of the Tape - Thunder @ Northstars

This week on Tale of the Tape, the Northstars are on a three-game winning streak, and come up against the team in second position on the ladder for the second time in two weekends, this time against the in-form Perth Thunder. Perth are heading east and looking to secure a top-two spot, after taking all six points on offer last weekend against the Rhinos. With the top six in flux, and currently only nine points between second and sixth, this game has serious implications for Finals positions.

Overall in 2025

So far in 2025

This is the fourth and final meeting of these teams in 2025, with Perth taking the two games in regulation in Perth way back on the first weekend of the season, and Newcastle winning 3-2 in overtime at the Hunter Ice Skating Stadium, on a Evgeni Skachkov goal.

When it comes to scoring, Perth have scored 15 goals across the three games, with Newcastle putting up eight, while the Novocastrians have outshot the Thunder – 33.0 shots per game to 30.3.

For Perth, this scoring has been led by their star Japanese import, Yu Hikosaka who has a cool seven goals in those three games, with a pair of apples filling out his basket. The second-highest scorer is Jordy Kyros, with six points – and more evidence that the Thunder stalwart is having a career-best year this year, as he is on track to set a new personal best for points in 2025, with 29 in 20 games so far. For the Northstars, their top two scorers in these games have a distinct Brave flavour about it (of course this is really all about the Brave), with Casey Kubara (four points) and Wehebe Darge (three points) leading the way.

At the other end of the ice, there have been strong goaltending from both teams. Aleksi Toivonen (more Brave flavour here) has only allowed 8 goals on 104 shots for a save percentage of 0.923. While Charlie Smart has only played in one game against his fellow sandgropers (stopping 18 of 20 shots), he did pick up the win.

Longer history

From 2023 until now (including this season), the teams have met eight times, with Perth winning five (two in OT) and Newcastle three (with the one OT this season). They have been relatively low-scoring affairs, with the Thunder averaging 3.875 goals per game, and the Northstars 2.875.

When it comes to special teams, Newcastle have definitely had the upper hand, with a powerplay running at a 28.6% success rate, and a penalty kill of 83.3%.

Not that it is quite the same stakes, but against Newcastle in Newcastle is the site of Perth’s most famous win – in the 2019 semi final, for their sole Finals win so far in their history. So the venue should hold no fears.

Period by period

These teams show pretty even profiles across games (amazing what one weekend of solid first-period scoring does for Newcastle), with a positive goal differential across all periods. The biggest difference for either of them is a differential half as positive for Perth in the second period – maybe they don’t enjoy the long change as much? They do concede more goals in the second period than any other (1.6 goals per second period, versus 1.2 in the first and 0.95 in the third).

Likely lineups

Pending any injuries or suspensions, here is how we think the teams will line up on the weekend. There are asterisks against both Jamie Woodman and John Kennedy, who have been travelling less this season.