Finals Preview - Newcastle Northstars

Perennial contenders, the Newcastle Northstars have been building their depth across the season with key additions to the local roster in 2025. This Finals Preview looks at how they will look to lift Goodall Cup number seven.

2025 Record

Overall record (13W – 3OTW – 0OTL – 12L) (0.536)

Record against finals-bound teams (8W – 1OTW – 0OTL – 11L)

Story of the season: Depth has been tested this year, but it has withstood the challenge so far.

Figure 1: Newcastle Northstars Percentage – overall, and against Finals-bound teams.

The Northstars overall record sits close to the 0.500 mark, but this belies an improved recent form curve, with July and August going at 0.667 showing a building threat to other teams.

Figure 2: Newcastle Northstars goal scoring – versus league average, overall and against finalists.

Firstly, the symmetry in Figure 2 is beautiful! Newcastle score 4.1 goals per game, and allow 3.6 across the league, and against finalists those numbers are reversed. It does perhaps suggest a challenge this weekend – but that will be true of all six teams. Something the Northstars can hang their hat on though, is the strength of their powerplay – scoring on one-third of the opportunities.

Figure 3: Newcastle Northstars special teams performance.

Strengths

Defence – Newcastle are the only team in 2025 to keep their opponents below 30 shots per game, holding them to 29.5, and keeping the pressure off Charlie Smart in net.

Penalty Kill – successful in killing 77.1% of penalties, the Northstars PK is the third best in the league, consistent with their strong defensive aspects.

Versatility – player availability has been a challenge this season for Newcastle, and that they’ve had such a strong performance is a testament to their versatility to have different names playing roles in their system.

Weaknesses

Goaltending – Charlie Smart has been a dependable local goaltender through 150 AIHL games, most of which are with Newcastle, but this hasn’t been his best season, posting a save percentage of 0.867 over the season. The good news is over his past 11 games, this rises to 0.877.

Scoring spread – perhaps as a result of lineup challenges, the Northstars have relied more heavily on their top-end scoring than they have in previous years. Their top three scorers (Yevgenii Skachkov, Kim Tallberg and Casey Kubara) have contributed 41.4% of their points (and 43.3% of goals) – behind only Brisbane and Adelaide.

Discipline on the road – a strange quirk this season has been that Newcastle collect around 4.5 additional PIMs on the road than at home. Making this slightly worse, Melbourne is where they get the most penalties of any venue.

When they win

Newcastle’s success in 2025 has been built on defence and protecting their net. In wins, they keep opponents to 25.4 shots per game, but in losses this blows out to 34.9. The other big change is on special teams. The change in powerplay from wins to losses is from 32.4% to 13.6%, and the PK drops from 85.2% to 68.6%.