2023 in review

• 2023 record – 2^nd in Rurak Conference, 3^rd overall, lost Play-in (18W – 1OTW – 0OTL – 7L)

After coming up just short in 2022, the Newcastle Northstars rebounded strongly in 2023, taking second place in the Rurak Conference and third overall, before being upset at home in the ‘Play-in’ by the Perth Thunder. Driven by high scoring (the Northstars were the second-highest scoring team in the league) and a league-leading powerplay, they rode a strong home record (11W – 2L) through the year. Unfortunately for Newcastle, just their third loss for the season at home put them out.

Figure 1: Newcastle Northstars key stats in 2023 AIHL Season

The strong offense was a key part of Newcastle’s strength, but their weakness overall was at the other end of the ice. Across the whole season they averaged a save percentage of 0.861, which was below league-average (0.864).

Table 1: Newcastle Northstars top 5 scorers in 2023

Table 2: Newcastle Northstars 2023 goalie stats

History

A perennial contender, the Northstars have only missed the post-season three times in their history – 2014, 2017 and 2018. They consistently have a deep lineup full of strong local players, and recruit cannily – finding dual nationals and providing the kind of environment that imports want to stay in and naturalise. Since 2013, they have had 20 players score 50 or more points – equal top of the league (with the Brave) for most players hitting that milestone.

Over the past two seasons, Newcastle have been an offensive juggernaut – averaging almost 6 goals per game (5.957), and putting up over 41 shots per game as well. Despite the strong local contingent, this has been powered by import scoring – with only two teams having a higher share of scoring by imports. However, those two teams are the last two Cup winners – the Mustangs and Brave.

The Northstars also have the best special teams across the league – Powerplay going at 27.9%, and Penalty Kill at 82.0% which are individually league-leading as well.

The familiar confines of the Hunter Ice Skating Stadium have been very lucrative for the Northstars – with only 3 regular-season losses in 23 games over the last two seasons. They score 6.6 goals per game, and only give up 3.7 to their opponents. Unfortunately, this strength doesn’t translate to the road, where the overall record falls from a percentage of 0.870 at home to 0.623 away – and the goal difference falls from +2.9 per game to about +0.9.

Most opponents have losing records against Newcastle, which is not surprising given their strength – however there are two exceptions where the Northstars have a record below 0.500. These are the Perth Thunder (0.467) and the CBR Brave (0.281) – both of which have been strong teams.  

The tables below show the top scorers for the Northstars, goalie performances for the current goalies, as well as Dayne Davis – who has played more in net than anyone else for Newcastle in the past decade, and the top scorers against Newcastle.

Table 3: Newcastle Northstars top 10 scorers, 2013 to 2023

Table 4: Newcastle Northstars key goalie stats, 2013 to 2023

*Per game calculations based on 60 minutes, not 50.

Table 5: Top 10 scorers against Newcastle Northstars, 2013 to 2023

New players/import

The Newcastle Herald has beaten the Northstars to the punch in announcing that three of the 2023 cohort of imports – Francis Drolet, Daniel Berno and Tanner Butler will return in 2024.

Coming back for his fourth AIHL season Francis Drolet is no stranger to the Northstars, with 152 points in his 68 games so far. There is no reason to expect his work to move from around the 2 points per game mark this season, and we project him to have around the 55-60 point range, with the slightly longer season.

2024 will be the third go-around for Daniel Berno in Newcastle, who is closing in on the 100 AIHL point milestone – he has 98 in 46 games. Much like Drolet, his production over the past two seasons has been consistent at or just above 2 points per game, and there is no reason that can’t continue, with his totals projected to be between 55 and 60 points as well.

Tanner Butler returns from a season leading the Bristol Pitbulls in the UK second tier NIHL, after 30 points in 19 games for the Northstars in 2023. He is a goalscoring defenceman, with 14 last season, and his offensive threat will be important for Newcastle. If he can play most of the season this year, we project he will post somewhere in the 35 to 45 point range.

Player to watch

It is hard to go past reigning AIHL Rookie of the Year, Riley Klugerman here. In his debut campaign, he put up 47 points in 20 games, and having spent the northern hemisphere winter in the NCAA Division III, his game can only continue to improve. If he comes back to a line with Wehebe Darge again, expect more big numbers from him, driving a strong local contingent out of Newcastle.

Keys for 2024

Depth will continue to be a key strength for Newcastle, and this will drive the strong scoring that is their hallmark. Keeping this going will be the barometer for their fortunes in 2024 and nobody will be surprised to see the Northstars at the pointy end of things again.

The local core headed by stars like Darge, Hawes, Klugerman, and Taylor (when available) is ably backed up by reliability on both offense and defence with Manwaring, Nadin and Gallagher up front, and Ward, Lindsay, Price and Tonks on the blueline. This depth means there are no easy minutes against Newcastle – and they can grind teams effectively.

As much as the scoring was a key strength in 2023, their relative weakness was at the other end of the ice. Charlie Smart put up a save percentage of 0.882, which was below where he would like to be – and down from his highs in 2022. Through a long AIHL career, Smart has shown at his best he can be one of the best local goalies in the league, but consistency is an issue. If he can bring his best through most of the season- that can put the Northstars on a Cup-challenging run.