On Sunday, against the Central Coast Rhinos, the Melbourne Mustangs managed something they hadn’t done in the Australian Ice Hockey League since August 25, 2019 – win without Ty Wishart in the lineup.

Since that overtime win against the Ice Dogs (courtesy of a Thomas Flack OT winner), the Mustangs had played 4 times without Wishart in official games (not including exhibition games in 2022), for a 0-4 record.

The former Bolt and Islander is clearly one of the best players in the AIHL, and until Sunday’s emphatic reversal – the Mustangs simply couldn’t win without him.

So let’s look at what happens without the big Canadian on the blue line. These stats will look at the Mustangs record with Wishart, and the record without him – through 2023 and 2024, up until Sunday’s drought-breaking win[i].

Scoreboard

Part of the deep insight I can offer into hockey, is that the goal differential in games is highly correlated with the result. So let’s start there.

In the case of the Mustangs, it is no secret that Wishart plays key roles on either side of the puck. Offensively, he sets up breakouts and moves the puck up the ice – starting out many forays forward for the men in orange and black. So it stands to reason that without him, the Mustangs score less – but the magnitude is extraordinary.

Without him in the lineup, the Mustangs score almost 3.5 goals per game less. For some reference, that is more goals per game than the Lightning, the Rhinos, the Brave and the Adrenaline are scoring in the 2024 season so far.

At the other end of the ice, a similar (if less stark) story. Mustangs’ opponents score just over two more goals per game without Wishart to contend with.

Figure 1: Goals per game with and without Ty Wishart in the Mustangs’ lineup

Overall, this leaves the Mustangs over five and a half goals per game less, without Wishart.

Shooting

If we take a look at shots, a similar picture emerges. The Mustangs take almost 10 less shots per game, and allow over six and a half more on their own goaltender.

Figure 2: Shots per game with and without Ty Wishart in the Mustangs’ lineup

Special teams

Curiously, given the important role Wishart plays in ‘quarterbacking’ the Mustangs powerplay – Mustangs’ special teams are pretty much unchanged without him in the team. Overall, special teams with Wishart run at a combined 105.6%, and without him they go at 106.0%.

Figure 3: Special teams performance, with and without Ty Wishart in the Mustangs’ line-up

So what?

No surprise that taking Wishart out of the Mustangs makes them a weaker team – taking a strong player from any team would leave a hole. The fact it took the Mustangs five goes to get a win without him though? That just shows how important a player he is.

While Scott Timmins may be the reigning AIHL MVP – there might be a case that as good as he is (and it is very good), he isn’t the most valuable player in his own team.

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[i] The Sunday game isn’t included – that blowout would make this article a lot less fun.