Finals Preview - Melbourne Mustangs

The Melbourne Mustangs are coming into the Finals series on the back of some significant challenges around player availability. Both injuries and suspensions have wreaked havoc on the Mustangs’ import contingent in recent weeks, and for them to get past a strong Thunder unit on Friday, they will need their local contingent to step up. The Finals Preview takes a look at how they can do it.

2025 Record

Overall record (11W – 2OTW – 1OTL – 15L) (0.440 PCT)

Record against finals-bound teams (5W – 2OTW – 0OTL – 13L)

Story of the season: Can they fill a Scott Timmins-sized hole on the ice?

Figure 1: Melbourne Mustangs Percentage – overall, and against Finals-bound teams.

Relative to the rest of the Finalists, the Mustangs are the lowest-scoring team left in it – scoring only 4.5 goals per game, and 4.3 against the other finalists. Coming in sixth, they have a sizable hill to climb.

Figure 2: Melbourne Mustangs goal scoring – versus league average, overall and against finalists.

One bright spot here is that the strong Mustangs PK remains strong against finalist – staying better than league average against the top 6 teams.

Figure 3: Melbourne Mustangs special teams performance

Strengths

Penalty Kill – The Mustangs have the second-best penalty kill percentage amongst the remaining six teams – both overall, and against Finalists. This is a useful result for the Mustangs, as they collect the most penalty minutes of any team in the league – giving the PK unit plenty of practice.

Import scoring – Imports have been driving the Mustangs scoring in 2025, delivering 51.6% of points, and 50.4% of goals – the second-highest share in the league on both counts. Even with injuries and changes in the imports able to be iced, they have still averaged 1.6 points per game.

Goaltending – another year, another strong set of numbers from Anthony Kimlin – no matter the jersey on his back. His save percentage of 0.903 is second in the league, and the top for local goalies – in a season that has been tough for goaltenders. Behind Kimmer, Bryan Mackenzie has shown his reliability as a backup, Seb Woodlands has battled through injury to be fit again, and young Tom Papas has now had a taste of the AIHL.

Weaknesses

Defence (SAG) – The Mustangs concede 39.4 shots on goal on average – third highest in the league, and means Kimlin has needed to bail them out. Ty Wishart coming back will help an undermanned defensive group that gave up 100 shots in two games on the weekend in Perth.

Scoring (GFG) – at the other end of the ice, the Mustangs aren’t troubling the scorers enough. Their 4.5 goals per game is the lowest of any of the six Finalists.

Local scoring – The other side of the reliance on import scoring, the Mustangs haven’t had the same high local production from recent seasons, with under half of their points and goals coming from locals. Brody Lindal has been stellar in his Melbourne ‘homecoming’, and Dean Klomp and Hayden Dawes posed threats, but they need some help.

Player availability – Injuries and suspensions are a real problem at the Mustangs, and with a couple stemming from the final weekend of the regular season, this doesn’t look to be a thing of the past.

When they win

Goaltending is the big standout. In wins, the overall save percentage is 0.926, but in losses this falls to 0.830. Special teams is also a factor – the powerplay in wins has a success rate of 27.3%, which falls to 17.1% in losses, and the penalty kills moves from 89.9% to 69.7%.

Player to watch

Brody Lindal. Almost two points per game, and doing his best to cover for Scott Timmins on the ice, Lindal is the most important scorer for the Mustangs. He needs to have a big weekend for them to get the job done.

Under the radar: Dean Klomp has been a reliable performer all year, and provides flexibility if needed. For the Mustangs to do it the hard way, he will be a key factor.