Finals Preview - Brisbane Lightning

Since joining the AIHL in 2023, the Brisbane Lightning have yet to get a postseason win on the board – but this year they may be the strongest unit we have seen from them. Led by a high-scoring top line, Brisbane will be looking to upset Newcastle on Friday to get their weekend going. Our Finals Preview looks at how the banana-benders make their assault this weekend.

2025 Record

Overall record (11W – 1OTW – 5OTL – 11L) (0.476 PCT)

Record against finals-bound teams (6W – 1OTW – 4OTL – 9L)

Story of the season: “Tanner Hopps and Co.” started hot, but the back half of the season hasn’t been as strong, and the reliance on a few has grown.

Figure 1: Brisbane Lightning Percentage – overall, and against Finals-bound teams.

While the Lightning will start the Friday game against Newcastle as underdogs, the win last weekend on Sunday shows they can beat them, and will give them some confidence.

Figure 2: Brisbane Lightning goal scoring – versus league average, overall and against finalists.

One bright spot here is that Brisbane score more goals against finalists than they do overall. The major concern is that they concede a whole lot more goals against the best teams.

Figure 3: Brisbane Lightning special teams performance

Strengths

Top line – the Lightning top line of Hopps, Miller and Campbell has been a real scoring threat this season, with Tanner Hopps putting up 80 points himself. Expect this line to have significant minutes this weekend.

Goaltending – young local duo Matus Trnka and Jake Doornbos have given the Lightning two very strong options in net, with a genuine 1A, 1B situation. With Brisbane giving up a lot of shots on goal (42.7 per game), they’ve needed to be strong, and they have been.

PDO – save percentage plus shooting percentage for Brisbane is the third highest in the league, showing they get the best of their efforts close to the net.

Home record – cold comfort heading into Finals as the away team, but Brisbane have a much stronger record at home (0.548 PCT vs 0.405) than on the road.

Weaknesses

Scoring spread – The reliance on that top line is a double-edged sword, as it has meant the Lightning have the tightest concentration of scoring in the league – 51.3% of their points come from the top 3 scorers (and 71.6% from imports). Since the start of July this increases to 58.4% and 76.0%. Hopps alone has a point on 70.2% of Lightning goals in this period.

Penalty Kill – in killing only 74.8% of penalties, Brisbane have a PK that is running better than only Perth of the Finals-bound teams.

Defence – the Lightning have the leakiest defence in the league outside of the Rhinos – conceding 42.7 shots on goal per game, leaving their local goalie tandem under the pump.

When they win

Goaltending is a big factor in wins. When Brisbane win, they have an average save percentage of 0.908, but in losses this falls to 0.842. Another element is the shots on goal, which registers 36.8 in wins, versus 29.8 in losses.

Player to watch

Tanner Hopps. Leading the league scoring by a cool 12 points, Hopps comes into Finals weekend in form.

Under the radar: Sam Hodic is a player that always brings energy to the game, and Finals back in his old stomping ground might bring the best out of him.